{"id":1200,"date":"2004-11-09T06:02:02","date_gmt":"2004-11-09T11:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/example.org\/when_will_blogg"},"modified":"2004-11-09T06:02:02","modified_gmt":"2004-11-09T11:02:02","slug":"when_will_blogg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/?p=1200","title":{"rendered":"When will blogging cross the chasm?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Blogging is merely the result of new technology being applied to the age-old problem of people wanting their ideas to be heard. Although blogging is growing by leaps and bounds, I do not think it has reached more than a small fraction of its full applicability at this point in time.<\/p>\n<p>Blogging is the subject of innumerable news articles and is the bane of many a careless mainstream journalist, but it is not out of the early adopter phase yet. Bloggers are visionaries for the most part, although members of the early majority (pragmatists) are testing the waters to see if blogging might help their careers or their businesses.<\/p>\n<p>While many people are busily examining blogging from the corporate management viewpoint, (e.g. will blogging sell more of my products?) my interest as a blogger is currently focused on the speed at which blogging will become a remunerative profession. <\/p>\n<p>This illustration from a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.writersblock.ca\/summer1998\/bookrev.htm\">review<\/a> of Geoffrey Moore&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/exec\/obidos\/tg\/detail\/-\/0060517123\/104-3958360-9311100?v=glance\">Crossing the Chasm<\/a> summarizes the typical phases in the adoption of a new technology. I maintain that we are still in the chasm between early adopters and the early majority.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Technology Adoption Life Cycle\" title=\"Talcbook3\" src=\"http:\/\/ripples.typepad.com\/photos\/uncategorized\/talcbook3.gif\" style=\"margin: 10px; float: left;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>I think we bloggers can benefit by revisiting Geoffrey Moore&#8217;s book and looking at various aspects of blogging vs the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. The chasm model provides a rational structure for predicting the future course of blogging and bloggers. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mmanuel.typepad.com\/media_guerrilla\/2004\/05\/can_bloggers_cr.html\">Mike Manuel<\/a>,<br \/>\nmedia guerrilla, touched upon this some months ago, but he felt that<br \/>\nblogging was just being adopted by visionaries. I think things have<br \/>\nprogressed rapidly since then, and blogging is now crossing the chasm<br \/>\nbetween early adopters and the early majority. <\/p>\n<p>At any rate, this <a href=\"http:\/\/dictionary.reference.com\/search?q=meme\">meme<\/a><br \/>\nstill has legs and should be developed further, if we are to anticipate<br \/>\nthe changes that will occur in the blogosphere in the next few months. <\/p>\n<p>Blogging is almost a pure meritocracy, with a definite advantage for being first on the scene with a particular theme, but as <a href=\"http:\/\/michellemalkin.com\/archives\/000810.htm\">Michelle Malkin<\/a><br \/>\npoints out, there is considerable mobility in the ranks of top<br \/>\nbloggers. This is further indication that blogging has not reached the<br \/>\ntornado stage of acceptance.<\/p>\n<p>Although there is a growing demand for the information that blogs<br \/>\nprovide, I would estimate that 98% of all bloggers do not make money<br \/>\nfrom their blogs yet. Blogs like <a href=\"http:\/\/www.instapundit.com\/\">Instapundit<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/wonkette.com\/\">Wonkette<\/a><br \/>\nthat have attracted a large audience can make money through<br \/>\nadvertising, but I don&#8217;t have enough data to show that business<br \/>\nbloggers are generating enough income to live on. I am sure that a<br \/>\nworking model will emerge, but that point seems to be still ahead for<br \/>\nmost blogs. We will be able to understand how long it will be by using<br \/>\nthe Chasm model to predict how blogging will be adopted as a mainstream<br \/>\ntechnology. <\/p>\n<p>Bloggers are certainly gaining respect from mainstream media, even<br \/>\nif it is only the grudging respect a cavalry troup&nbsp; gives to a road<br \/>\nfull of caltrops, but respect does not pay the bills and enable us take<br \/>\nour families to far-off places with sandy beaches and tropical breezes.<\/p>\n<p>I think that blogging is about to leave the province of visionaries<br \/>\n(early adopters) and become the subject of intense evaluation by the<br \/>\nearly majority who need to use blogging to break through the increasing<br \/>\nconsumer resistance to corporate flackery.<\/p>\n<p>As John Winsor writes in his new book, &quot;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.1800ceoread.com\/details.asp?productid=0793188369\">Beyond the Brand<\/a>&quot;, companies must use &quot;bottom-up&quot; tools to co-create new products and marketing strategies <em>with<\/em><br \/>\ntheir customers. John has not highlighted blogging as one of these<br \/>\ntools, but he stresses the need for companies to engage in a dialogue<br \/>\nwith customers. Those of who blog know how open that dialogue can be,<br \/>\nsometimes like drinking from a fire hose! <\/p>\n<p>If blogs are to serve the needs of early majority enterprises, the<br \/>\ntools have to be more user friendly and less technically challenging.<br \/>\nAdoption by early majority firms, which operate on the &quot;herd<br \/>\nmentality&quot;, will generate a great need for educational classes in<br \/>\ncorporate blogging, PR blogging, sales blogging, etc., and industry<br \/>\ngroups dedicated to building an infrastructure to support effective<br \/>\ncorporate blogging.<\/p>\n<p>The late majority will probably never get directly involved in<br \/>\nblogging and will probably use hired bloggers as a channel to get the<br \/>\nword out much as corporations now use PR firms. Blogs which are simply<br \/>\nadvertisements elicit <a href=\"http:\/\/weeklyscheiss.blogspot.com\/2004\/11\/so-i-lose-my-cool-in-rampant-rant-big.html\">ridicule<\/a><br \/>\ntoday, but in the brave new world of commercial blogging, there may be<br \/>\nblogs that replicate the function of the &quot;infomercials&quot; that appear on<br \/>\nlate night TV.<\/p>\n<p>It is important to realize that bloggers are working with a blank<br \/>\nslate here and there is no telling what will happen in the months and<br \/>\nyears to come. There is such power in the written word that we wre<br \/>\nworking with cultural dynamite. Anything can happen when citizens can<br \/>\npublish freely.<\/p>\n<p>There are really no rules or &quot;how to&#8217;s&quot; that are being enforced by a<br \/>\n&quot;higher authority&quot;. All enforcement is done by market pressure and peer<br \/>\npressure. I think we have barely glimpsed the shape of future blogging.<br \/>\nI am sure that coming changes will make many long for the good old days<br \/>\nwhen a blog was just a collection of links or random journal entries.<\/p>\n<p>I think there is much more to be said here, but I am going to give<br \/>\nit a rest and let you have a turn on the soapbox. Tell me what you<br \/>\nthink is going to happen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Blogging is merely the result of new technology being applied to the age-old problem of people wanting their ideas to be heard. Although blogging is growing by leaps and bounds, I do not think it has reached more than a small fraction of its full applicability at this point in time.<\/p>\n<p>Blogging is the subject of innumerable news articles and is the bane of many a careless mainstream journalist, but it is not out of the early adopter phase yet. Bloggers are visionaries for the most part, although members of the early majority (pragmatists) are testing the waters to see if blogging might help their careers or their businesses.<\/p>\n<p>While many people are busily examining blogging from the corporate management viewpoint, (e.g. will blogging sell more of my products?) my interest as a blogger is currently focused on the speed at which blogging will become a remunerative profession. <\/p>\n<p>This illustration from a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.writersblock.ca\/summer1998\/bookrev.htm\">review<\/a> of Geoffrey Moore&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/exec\/obidos\/tg\/detail\/-\/0060517123\/104-3958360-9311100?v=glance\">Crossing the Chasm<\/a> summarizes the typical phases in the adoption of a new technology. I maintain that we are still in the chasm between early adopters and the early majority.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Technology Adoption Life Cycle\" title=\"Talcbook3\" src=\"http:\/\/ripples.typepad.com\/photos\/uncategorized\/talcbook3.gif\" style=\"margin: 10px; float: left;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>I think we bloggers can benefit by revisiting Geoffrey Moore&#8217;s book and looking at various aspects of blogging vs the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. The chasm model provides a rational structure for predicting the future course of blogging and bloggers. <\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/?p=1200\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1794],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3R4iK-jm","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1200"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1200"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1200\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/makingripples.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}