Seth Godin – five years from now

Seth Godin is a bestselling author, entrepreneur and agent of change, but I think he is far too conservative in his assumptions for what life will be like five years from now.

Here’s what Seth Godin wrote, judge for yourselves:

Five years from now…
Assume that:
Hard drive space is free
Wifi like connections are everywhere
Connections speeds are 10 to 100 times faster
Everyone has a digital camera
Everyone carries a device that is sort of like a laptop, but cheap and tiny
The number of new products introduced every day is five times greater than now
Wal-Mart’s sales are three times as big
Any manufactured product that’s more than five years old in design sells at commodity pricing
The retirement age will be five years higher than it is now
Your current profession will either be gone or totally different

Perhaps being an agent of change has jaded him a bit. It has been observed that people involved in major paradigm shifts tend to feel that the big ones are already accounted for. I think the rate of change will continue to increase, barring nuclear meltdown and most of what he envisions will exist for all practical purposes within three years and the rest won’t matter.

I think the real changes will occur on a social level and will transcend anything we have seen before in terms of changing relationships and patterns of control. Universal, ubiquitous image capture, communication and publishing will readjust traditional power structures and can change civilization.

I think we will be there in three years, including the altered/absent state of your current profession. Others like Strategize feel it will be sooner.

What is your take on this? Or do you feel that things will get so bad that you won’t care?

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0 Responses to Seth Godin – five years from now

  1. Avi Solomon says:

    As Mcluhan would say:’the effects are here, the cause is on the way’ i.e. a flipping point very fast:)
    Lets just hope that the computers don’t take over the world in a few hours, though I admit to a conservative estimate!

  2. I don’t think it’s a case of computers taking over the world. It’s more like having the power to communicate freely everywhere and leave traces of that communication when you are done.

    Along with that new freedom will come new responsibilities, you will be held responsible for what you say and anonymity will be viewed like wearing a mask in public. Anonymous comments and messages will be filtered and disregarded by more sophisticated networks.

    I see an increased use of reputation systems, like the ones on ebay. Newbies are watched carefully and receive little credit, credence or trust until they have built a reputation.

    I could also see the appearance of “troll databases”. If someone has a long history of disreputable or off-topic comments, or a history of spamming, they could become part of someone’s “troll database.”

    Since these would probably be shared widely, and would contain IP addresses, they would have a definite affect on the value of those IP addresses.

  3. Avi Solomon says:

    I think that now more than ever, Honesty is indeed the best policy. But one has to be prepared to stick to one’s guns and be prepared to pay the price:)
    “To thine own self be true”!

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